Sunday, November 02, 2008

Young voters cell phone use translates into a landslide for Obama

The Republican Party is about to flat-line. A tsunami of record proportions is rising in these last hours before Election Day. Millions of new young voters will join us to defeat this mutant machine that has cursed our political landscape for too long.

I predict of landslide of epic proportions. I believe the current polling data does not accurately reflect the actual size of the Obama lead. Because of the extensive calling of landline phones to conduct polling, thousands of young newly registered voters are not being surveyed and therefore are not part of the current numbers.

Recent data from Pew Research Center Publications conclusions on cell phone use and 2008 elections:

Current polling in the 2008 presidential election shows a very tight race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. In part because of the strong support Obama is attracting among younger voters, and as the number of Americans who are reachable only by cell phones rises, interest continues to grow in the question of whether public opinion polls that do not include cell phones are accurately measuring the relative levels of support for the two candidates.

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has conducted three major election surveys with both cell phone and landline samples since the conclusion of the primaries. In each of the surveys, there were only small, and not statistically significant, differences between presidential horserace estimates based on the combined interviews and estimates based on the landline surveys only. Yet a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin. Read entire article here.

A two or three point (which could be 3 or 4 point) addition to Obama’s current lead translates into a landslide election. On Wednesday we will be burying what is left of Karl Rove’s permanent Republican majority. For whom the bell tolls Karl, it tolls for thee!

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